November soybeans were 16 cents lower overnight. Malaysian palm oil prices were slightly higher in early action but ended about 1.4% lower overnight. The dollar was lower, and crude oil was higher overnight.
Rains are easing stress in the western Corn Belt, but dryness persists in the east. Yesterday, soybeans traded on both sides of the previous day's close and finished slightly higher. Traders said that support came from a weaker dollar and higher crude. That same combination of supportive outside factors occurred overnight, but soybeans were lower and actually sold off to substantially lower levels late in the overnight session to finish near the lows. Traders indicate that the weakness has been due to US weather that is generally wetter than was expected as recently as yesterday's open. Rains were widespread in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin yesterday and again overnight and into this morning. Rains also fell yesterday in dry areas of southern and eastern Ohio. More rain is expected in the central Midwest tomorrow and Saturday, and while these are not expected to be soaking rains, they are thought to be capable of holding the overall yields near 40 bushels per acre or perhaps slightly lower. Soybean basis levels for nearby delivery have been sharply higher at the Gulf in recent days due to very thin supplies in the export pipeline. This has been due to very light farmer selling in the interior, a late harvest in the south and the need to reduce traffic on parts of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers to one-way due to low water levels. This has come at a time when Chinese demand appears to be picking up with buying said to be from both South American and US origins. As has been the case in recent months, Asian demand is mainly coming to Pacific NW ports due to the lower transportation costs from that area to Asia. Traders will get a better feel for near-term demand with the weekly export sales news and the monthly crush update for July, both released before the opening. Broiler operators in the US placed 171 million chicks for meat production for the week ending August 23rd which was down 4% from last year. This suggests lower meal usage into the 4th quarter.
More rain fell overnight in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa, adding to the rains that fell in those areas yesterday and the night before. Further rains are expected to push through the center of the Midwest and on into the east along with a cool front into Friday and Saturday. Forecasts still call for slightly warmer than normal temperatures into early next week, but these are probably not enough to stress late developing crops except perhaps for very late developing soybeans in the areas that remain very dry. There are no new tenders to report.