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Pre-Opening Corn Market Report for 8/28/2008

December corn was 7 1/2 cents lower overnight. The US dollar was lower again overnight and crude oil was higher.

The corn market was lower yesterday despite the combination of a lower dollar and higher crude. That same combination of supportive outside factors existed overnight, and corn actually traded lower. In fact, the market broke late in the overnight session and finished substantially lower. Traders indicate that weather appears to be the overriding factor as unexpected rains moved into western and NW growing areas before the open yesterday. These areas again received rain over the past 12 hours, and southern and eastern Ohio got some good rains yesterday. While the corn crop is late, it is farther along than soybeans and it was less vulnerable to yield losses from dryness in the first place. So, some analysts are upping yield estimates back to near 154 bushels per acre, which is just below the USDA's latest number at 155. The USDA will issue its latest Export Sales Report this morning, and traders are looking for a possible slight pullback from last week's moderately large total of over 690,000 tonnes for old and new crop combined. Basis levels were firm for corn in the interior yesterday and very strong for nearby delivery due to light farmers selling and navigation problems on the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. Basis levels were also higher at the Gulf yesterday for early September delivery.

More rain fell overnight in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa, adding to the rains that fell in those areas yesterday and the night before. Further rains are expected to push through the center of the Midwest and on into the east along with a cool front into Friday and Saturday. Forecasts still call for somewhat warmer than normal temperatures into early next week, but these are probably not enough to stress late developing crops except perhaps for very late developing soybeans in areas that remain dry.




 
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