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Pre-Opening Soy Complex Market Report for 7/18/2008

November soybeans were 8 1/4 cents higher overnight. Malaysia palm oil was down 2.2% and traders there are said to be increasingly pessimistic about demand prospects. The dollar was lower and crude oil was higher overnight.

The soybean complex opened lower yesterday and broke sharply from there. Traders indicated that pressure came from a combination of the Senate vote in Argentina rejecting that country's proposed export taxes, along with a sharp break in crude oil and short term forecasts of favorable crop weather across much of the US. Weather forecasts this morning continue to show good rains starting in the west and northwest growing areas today and gradually spreading across most soybean growing areas into early next week. The exception should continue to be the Delta, which is expected to remain dry and hot until at least Wednesday and which is stressing the soybean crop there. This week's Export Sales Report showed disappointing numbers for soybeans and meal. Net old crop sales for soybeans were 63,500 tonnes with net new crop sales at 39,000 tonnes. Sales of soybeans have already exceeded the USDA's projection for the current marketing year. Total sales to date stand at 101.9% of the projected total compared to a 5-year average of 100.7%. In oil, net old crop sales were 5,900 tonnes with net new crop sales at zero. Weekly sales of 29,000 tonnes are needed to reach the USDA projection. Total soy oil sales to date stand at 76.5% of the projected total compared to a 5-year average of 64.8%. In meal, net old crop sales were 61,200 tonnes with net new crop sales at zero. Sales of 94,100 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA projection. Total sales of meal to date stand at 87.1% of the projected total compared to a 5-year average of 84.5%. A private firm in Taiwan is expected to tender for 30,000-60,000 tonnes of soybeans on Friday. Talk of cutting the Indonesia palm oil export tax in August may be seen as a negative development for soybean oil.

Moderate to heavy rains fell over the past 24-36 hours in the central to northern Great Plains as well as southern Minnesota, southern Wisconsin and much of Iowa. Most major growing areas north and west of northern Illinois should see rain through the weekend with a broad east-west band of precipitation migrating southward across the entire width of the soybean belt on Monday and Tuesday. Hot temperatures are expected across much of the soybean belt today except for the NW belt and the Southeastern US. Hot weather should be gradually pushed to the south through the middle of next week. Some long term forecasts call for another warm up to above normal temperatures at the end of next week. The Delta is a different story with dry conditions expected to persist through the middle of next week along with hot temperatures. A state-run firm in Taiwan is in the market for 45,000 tonnes of US soybeans and corn. India is tendering for 24,000 tonnes of soy oil from South America for July and August shipment. No tenders are scheduled for soybeans.




 
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