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Pre-Opening Corn Market Report for 7/18/2008

December corn was 4 cents lower overnight. Crude oil was higher and the dollar was lower.

Corn sold off sharply yesterday and closed near the day's lows. Traders indicated that the selling was sparked by a combination of favorable crop weather in the US and a sharp break in crude oil. Funds were heavy sellers on the day with totals of 12,000 contracts sold or more. Further selling overnight took the December contract into new lows for July with the overnight session also finishing near the lows. Weather forecasts still call for substantial rains across the north central and northwest Corn Belt into the weekend, with the rain system gradually working its way south and east next week. This should bring some moderation to current heat levels, which traders say adds up to a continuation of favorable conditions. While some forecasters are calling for a warmup at the end of next week, analysts say that the later it gets at this point, the harder it will be to seriously damage the corn crop. Export sales were slightly above expectations yesterday. Net old crop sales were 369,200 tonnes, with net new crop sales at 466,800 tonnes. Weekly sales of 207,700 tonnes are needed to reach the USDA projection for the current marketing year. Total sales to date stand at 97.6% of the projected total for the marketing year compared to a 5-year average of 94.0%. Basis levels in the interior were firm again yesterday due to light farmer selling, while river points were said to be weak reflecting soft short term export needs.

Moderate to heavy rains fell over the past 24-36 hours in the central to northern Great Plains as well as southern Minnesota, southern Wisconsin and much of Iowa. Most major growing areas north and west of northern Illinois should see rain through the weekend, with a broad east-west band of precipitation migrating southward across the entire width of the Corn Belt on Monday and Tuesday. Hot temperatures are expected across much of the Corn Belt today, except for the NW belt and the Southeastern US. Hot weather should be gradually pushed to the south through the middle of next week. Some long term forecasts call for another warm up to above normal temperatures at the end of next week. Kenya is in for 270,000 tonnes of corn in July. No other major tenders are scheduled.




 
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