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Pre-Opening Soy Complex Market Report for 12/2/2008

January soybeans were 3 1/2 cents higher overnight. Palm oil futures in Malaysia finished more than 1% lower. The dollar was higher and crude oil was mostly lower.

An overwhelmingly negative set of outside factors took most commodity markets lower to sharply lower yesterday. That included soybeans and oil where funds were sellers. Meal was moderately lower with mixed trade by funds. Traders note that outside factors are much more positive this morning. The Commitments of Traders Report for the week ending 11/25 showed that funds were moderate sellers in soybeans and small sellers in oil. News that a major US poultry producer filed for bankruptcy may hurt meal demand. If meal domestic demand is revised lower by near 6% from the last USDA supply/demand report, crush demand could slip by near 76 million bushels, which could push ending stocks to near 282 million bushels from 205 million as the current forecast. In recent months, the market has seen significant weakness in the first 4 trading sessions of the month. From the highs of the first session of the month to the lows of the 4th session, January soybeans broke $2.13 in the first 4 days of August, $1.37 in September, $1.44 1/4 in October and 74 1/2 cents in November. This week's export inspections were 37.454 million bushels for soybeans. Cumulative inspections stand at 30.6% of the USDA's projection for 2008/09 compared to a 5-year average of 33.9%. Inspections need to average just 17.828 million bushels each week to reach the USDA projection. The improved outlook for new crop soybeans in Argentina since last week comes amid reports that farmers there are holding much larger than normal stocks due to the strikes earlier this year which interrupted the flow of soybeans into export channels.

Snow and rain are expected in the central and north central Plains tomorrow with some activity possible down into the Texas Panhandle. This activity should also cover the NW and west central corn and soybean belts. Conditions are then expected to be mostly dry until Monday when a similar system may bring moisture a bit farther east into the north central Midwest. In Brazil, dry conditions continue in Rio Grande do Sul and Parana although there was some scattered relief over the past 24 hours. Conditions in Argentina are now generally favorable although more rain is needed. Egypt is tendering for up to 15,000 tonnes of sun oil. Iran is in the market for up to 25,000 tonnes of soy oil and up to 20,000 tonnes of sun oil. India is in the market to buy 26,500 tonnes of edible oils by mid-November.




 
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