NYMEX CBOT CME CME Group
Pre-Opening Soy Complex Market Report for 8/29/2008

November soybeans were 4 3/4 cents higher overnight. Malaysian palm oil futures were up 6.1% overnight. The dollar was lower overnight, and crude oil was higher.

Lower prices yesterday were tied to rains in the NW half of the corn belt with forecasts of more rain today. Amounts have been light to moderate, and coverage has been only fair, so there is still room for a drop in yield below 40 bushels per acre according to one analyst. Temperatures are expected to be above normal in most major growing areas through next week, but some forecasters are calling for below normal temperatures 10 days out and longer. An official think tank in China reports that crush margins have improved for domestic soybean processors, and that this has stimulated a small rise in soybean imports. However, it added that stocks are ample, so the increase in imports is not likely to be large. Today is first notice day for September futures contracts. There were 162 deliveries for soybeans, 22 for meal and 2,901 for oil. Export sales were out yesterday, and they were considered weak for soybeans and soy oil and in line with expectations for meal. Net sales for soybeans came in at -193,300 tonnes for the current marketing year which ends on August 31st, and 336,400 for next year for a total of 143,100. China cancelled 240,000 tonnes of soybeans for the current year and bought 90,000 tonnes for next year. Net meal sales came in at 34,900 tonnes for the current marketing year which ends on September 30th and 41,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 75,900. Net oil sales came in at -19,300 tonnes for the current marketing year which ends on September 30th and 300 tonnes for the next year for a total of -19,000. Mexico cancelled 22,300 tonnes in oil sales for this year. The Census Bureau also released its July crush numbers today. Total crush was 139.1 million bushels which was below trade expectations. Oils stocks were 2.784 billion pounds, which was also below trade expectations and meal stocks were 294,500 tons which was thought to be well below expectations.

Rains should finish moving through the central and eastern Midwest by early tomorrow. Amounts have been light to moderate with fair coverage over the past 48-60 hours. The best rains have fallen in Minnesota and parts of Iowa. Forecasts generally call for dry conditions and above normal temperatures after Saturday and through next week in most major growing areas. However, some forecasts are starting to add below normal temperatures 10 days out and longer which means that the threat of frost will remain a market factor. The southern Delta region may see unwanted heavy rains from Gustav at some point over the next 5 days. There are no new tenders to report.




 
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