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Mid-Session Soy Complex Market Report for 8/8/2008

November soybeans opened 39 cents lower on the day at 1200 and established an early range of 1180 to 1206 1/4. The sharply lower open was followed by an even harder break in the early minutes of the session. Floor traders indicate that this came on local selling and large-scale commission house sell stops with possible fund selling as well. Soybeans rallied after the initial wave of selling had passed, but prices remained under severe pressure going into early mid session. Meal and oil were also sharply lower. Outside markets and weather are two profoundly negative price influences this morning according to traders. The very sharp rally in the dollar is so steep that traders are worried it may stem the flow of new export business that has emerged for US soybeans over the past two weeks. This comes in addition to the disinflationary impact that the dollar is having in terms of generating liquidation in a broad spectrum of commodity futures markets this morning. Weather is a factor in that areas in the Delta and SE United States are expecting moderate temperatures in coming days and ongoing, beneficial rains are expected across the US Delta through at least the middle of next week. Also, the previously absent monsoon rains in India are apparently returning to normal which is considered very beneficial to oilseed crops there. This comes as traders are said to be evening up ahead of the USDA's next Supply and Demand and Crop Production Reports. Trade estimates for soybean yield is up only slightly from the USDA's July estimate despite almost ideal growing weather since then and some traders are worried that the actual yield may end up being even higher. Basis levels at the Gulf are mostly steady this morning on light demand. Some traders there are expecting demand to remain firm due to the drop in soybean futures this morning, but others are concerned about softening demand due to the stronger dollar.




 
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